Radial Gradients of Abundances

We have computed a set of multiphase chemical evolution models in which the radial mass distributions of each theoretical galaxy is calculated using the universal rotation curve from Persic, Salucci and Steel (1996). We obtain the chemical evolution for galaxies of different masses and morphological types by changing the efficiencies to form molecular clouds and stars according with these types. We obtain the radial distributions of diffuse and molecular gas densities, the star formation rate and abundances for 15 elements for each galaxy. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Predicting the time of green up in temperate and boreal biomes

Direct observations as well as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from satellites have shown earlier leaf appearance in the northern hemisphere, which is believed to result from climate warming. The advance of leaf out to earlier times in the year could be limited or even reversed, however, as temperate and boreal trees require a certain amount of chilling in winter for rapid leaf out in spring. If this chilling requirement is not fulfilled, an increasing amount of warming is required. Implications of these chilling requirements at the biome level are not clear. One approach to estimate their importance is to generalize the exponential relationships between chilling and warming established for single species. Previous work using NDVI data suggests that this is indeed feasible but much has been limited to specific biomes or a very few years of data for the modelling. We find chilling requirements for northern temperate and boreal biomes by fitting various phenology models to green-up dates determined from NDVI using various methods and 12 years of data. The models predict that in northern middle and high latitudes the advance of green-up will be limited to a total of 4 to 5 days on average (but up to 15 days regionally) over the time period 2000–2060 as estimated using two contrasting climate simulations. This results from the exponentially increasing warming requirements for leaf out when winter chilling falls below a threshold as shown by a comparison with models that consider only spring warming. The model evaluation suggests an element of regional adaptation of the warming required for leaf out in large biomes.     

Correction of tree ring stable carbon isotope chronologies for changes in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere

Tree-ring stable carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C) often display a decline over the industrial period (post-AD1850) that is only partly explained by changes in the isotopic ratio of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and may represent a response to increased atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ (ca). If this is not addressed, reconstructions using long tree-ring stable isotope chronologies calibrated using the modern period, for which meteorological records are available, may be compromised. We propose a correction procedure that attempts to calculate the δ¹³C values that would have been obtained under pre-industrial conditions. The correction procedure uses nonlinear (loess) regression but the magnitude of the adjustment made is restricted by two logical constraints based on the physiological response of trees: first, that a unit increase in ca cannot result in more than the same unit increase in the internal concentration of CO₂ (ci), and second, that increases in water-use efficiency as a result of an increase in ca are limited to maintaining a constant ci/ca ratio. The first constraint allows retention of a falling trend in δ¹³C, which exceeds that which could logically be attributed to a passive response to rising ca. The second constraint ensures that any increase in δ¹³C, reflecting a change in water-use efficiency beyond maintenance of a constant ci/ca, is not removed. The procedure is tested using ‘pseudoproxies’, to demonstrate the effect of the correction on time-series with different shapes, and data from three sites in Finland and Norway. Two of the time-series retain a significant trend after correction, and in all three cases the correction improves the correlation with local meteorological measurements.     

Geology and Alteration-Mineralization Characteristics of the Cibaliung Epithermal Gold Deposit, Banten, Indonesia

Abstract. The Cibaliung gold project is located at the central portion of the Neogene Sunda‐Banda magmatic arc. Gold‐silver mineralization in the area is hosted in a thick sequence of sub‐aqueous basaltic andesite volcanics with intercalated sediments intruded by sub‐volcanic andesite to diorite plugs and dykes, and subsequently cut by a cluster of diatreme breccias. These host rocks are unconformably overlain by dacitic tuffs, younger sediments and basalt flows. The gold prospects in Cibaliung occur within a NW‐trending structural corridor that is 3.5 km wide by at least 6 km long. It is fault‐bounded and is considered to be a graben. Two aligned NNW‐trending sub‐vertical shoots, Cikoneng and Cibitung, host the currently defined resource within the steeply dipping vein system with a minimum strike length of 1,300 m. As of July 2001, exploration has defined an inferred + indicated mineral resource of approximately 1.3 million tonnes at 10.42 g/t gold and 60.7 g/t silver at a 3 g/t Au cut‐off. This equates to approximately 435,000 ounces of gold and 2.54 million ounces of silver. Gold‐silver mineralization occurs as quartz veins characteristic of the low‐sulphidation epithermal adularia‐sericite type. Progressive dilation with a general increase in gold grade has produced multi‐stage veining and brecciation that grades from early to late stages as: pre‐mineral fluidized breccia, quartz vein stockwork, massive vein, crustiform vein, colloform‐crustiform vein with progressive increase in chloritic clay bands, clay‐quartz milled matrix breccias with a progressive increase in clay content, and synto post‐mineral fault gouge with vein clasts. Wall rock alteration is characterized by pro‐grade chlorite+adularia flooding that is locally overprinted by a low temperature argillic alteration (smectite, illite and mixed layered clays). Generally, the argillic alteration becomes weak with depth. The major mineral constituents of the veins are quartz, adularia and clay. In the early gold‐poor hydrothermal stages, quartz and adularia dominate with minor calcite and clay (smectite, poorly crystalline chlorite, interlayered chlorite‐smectite and illite‐smectite). In the later gold‐rich hydrothermal stages, clay with variable amounts of carbonate increases whereas the abundance of quartz and adularia decreases. Gold occurs mainly as electrum while silver occurs as argentite‐aguilarite‐naumannite and electrum, and rarely as native silver, sulphosalts and tellurides. Sulphides generally comprise <1 vol % of the vein, with pyrite as the most common species. Together with pyrite, traces of very fine‐grained base metal sulphides dominated by chalcopyrite, sphalerite and galena are in most cases intimately associated with electrum and silver minerals. Partial supergene oxidation generally extends down to about 200 m below the surface at Cikoneng and further down to more than 300 m at Cibitung. The hydrothermal system responsible for the gold‐silver mineralization in the area may be related to rhyolitic magmatism focused on a volcanic intrusive center during back arc rifting that formed a graben or pull‐apart basin. The dominant mechanism for the higher grade gold deposition is fluid mixing of up welling metal‐bearing hydrothermal solutions with relatively near surface cool, oxygenated condensate and/or steam‐heated meteoric fluids, as opposed to retrograde boiling. The strongly focused dilational structural environment is thought to have been the mechanism for focusing fluid flows, both up welling and descending, forming pipe‐like mineralized bodies in the rhomboidal dilation zones. It is interpreted that mineralization took place under low temperature conditions (<150–220d?C) at a minimum depth of around 200–250 m below the palaeo‐water table.     

The Bransfield current system

We use hydrographic data collected during two interdisciplinary cruises, CIEMAR and BREDDIES, to describe the mesoscale variability observed in the Central Basin of the Bransfield Strait (Antarctica). The main mesoscale feature is the Bransfield Front and the related Bransfield Current, which flows northeastward along the South Shetland Island Slope. A laboratory model suggests that this current behaves as a gravity current driven by the local rotation rate and the density differences between the Transitional Zonal Water with Bellingshausen influence (TBW) and the Transitional Zonal Water with Weddell Sea influence (TWW). Below the Bransfield Front we observe a narrow (10 km wide) tongue of Circumpolar Deep Water all along the South Shetland Islands Slope. At the surface, the convergence of TBW and TWW leads to a shallow baroclinic front close to the Antarctic Peninsula (hereafter Peninsula Front). Between the Bransfield Front and the Peninsula Front we observe a system of TBW anticyclonic eddies, with diameters about 20 km that can reach 300 m deep. This eddy system could be originated by instabilities of the Bransfield Current. The Bransfield Current, the anticyclonic eddy system, the Peninsula Front and the tongue of Circumpolar Deep Water, are the dynamically connected components of the Bransfield Current System.     

A comparative analysis of empirical calibrators for nebular metallicity

We present a new analysis of the main empirical calibrators of oxygen abundance for ionized gas nebulae. With that aim we have compiled an extensive sample of objects with emission-line data including the near-infrared [S  iii ] lines and the weak auroral lines which allow for the determination of the gas electron temperature. For all the objects the oxygen abundances have been derived in a homogenous way, using the most recent sets of atomic coefficients and taking into the account the effect of particle density on the temperature of O⁺. The residuals between directly and empirically derived abundances as a function of abundance have been studied. A grid of photoionization models, covering the range of physical properties of the gas, has been used to explain the origin of the uncertainties affecting each abundance calibrator. The range of validity for each abundance parameter has been identified and its average uncertainty has been quantified.     

Virtual tools for volcanic crisis management, and evacuation decision support: applications to El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, México)

Decision making regarding massive evacuation of a population threatened by a probable volcanic eruption is a major problem in crisis management. Such a decision is general on the number of people to be evacuated, available resources and infrastructure, quantity and quality of the escape routes and shelters, and the economic, social and political costs involved in the operation, coupled with the updated information provided by scientists about the forecast of future activity and probable eruption scenarios. Knowing time-lapse between the evacuation decision-making time and the time in which the evacuation is completed is another critical issue that must be carefully considered in densely populated areas. In such areas, it is really important to estimate in advance this time-lapse, as the forecast must be released with enough time to complete all the evacuation process before the destructive manifestations of the eruption begin. In this context, evacuation planning is a crucial component of emergency management. It is common for Emergency Plans to include pre-established strategies. However, an evacuation procedure should be flexible, depending on the above-mentioned timing, and on the decisions, evacuation schemes, environmental characteristics and other factors. In this work, several hazard models such as a lava flow model based on a Monte Carlo algorithm, a pyroclastic density current based on energy cone model, a semi-empirical inversion model to estimate the thickness of ash deposits, and all available information about the El Chión volcano have been used to obtain the area that should be evacuated in case of an eruption. Then, multiple evacuation strategies at El Chichón volcano have been designed, considering not only the characteristics of the eruption forecast, but also environmental factors (e.g., weather conditions) and social factors (e.g., tourism and farming seasons). The variable scale evacuation model has been used to estimate the evacuation time. In the paper, those virtual tools are briefly described as well as the information obtained from the drill of 2009. In addition to the optimization of evacuation under variable conditions and situations, one of the main objectives of this work is to provide a reliable estimation of the mitigation action time, for an Emergency Plan.     

Light curve fittings of active galactic nuclei using supernova explosions

In the starburst-warmers scenario, we have used a supernova (SN) explosion model to construct theoretical light curves for active galactic nuclei (AGN). The ionizing flux, in this model, should show variability according to the SN rate in the galaxy.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

Distribution and abundance of the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the Gulf of California and their relation with the environment

In 1989–90 the small pelagic fishery of the Gulf of California began to show a very marked decline in the catch of its main component, the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax). The catch plummeted from 292,000 t in 1988–89 to 7000 t in 1991–92 and 1992–93. This caused a serious economic crisis in the local fishery fleet and industry, and resulted in the loss of 3000 jobs. In 1993–94 the fishery showed signs of recovery as the abundance of the Pacific sardine began to recover. The catch improved to 128,000 t in 1993–94 and further to 215,000 t in 1996–97. In trying to understand this great variability, we proposed the hypothesis that the distribution and the abundance of the Pacific sardine of the Gulf of California is determined by the wind patterns (upwelling) and the sea surface temperature. The results of analyzing data from 25 cruises showed the period of low relative abundance between 1990 and 1993 and one of high abundance between 1993 and 1996. The range of the sardine's distribution expanded as its abundance increased and contracted when abundances were low. The relationship between the abundances of the sardine and environmental variables proved to nonlinear and bell-shaped. The adjusted pattern explained 78.8% of the variability of the sardine abundance. The highest abundance are produced by moderate upwelling (13–18 m³s⁻¹ per 10 m of coastline) and sea surface temperatures of between 19°C and 25°C.